Convective Outlooks 2016

Convective Outlook 20.07.2016

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Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 675.883 94.888.203
50 % 433.026 120.283.549
Severe Threat 1 169.910 65.748.556
Severe Threat 2 18.400 8.702.991

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for e Netherlands and extreme NW Germany mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 surrounds the Severe Threat 2 mainly for medium-size to locally large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for N Spain and S France mainly for large hail

 

Synoptic Setup

A deep vortex south of Iceland remains stationary during the forecast period, while a cut off takes place over Eastern Europe. In-between, ridging at first strengthens from N Africa over Spain to Germany. On Wednesday, the ridge gets gradually narrow, and synoptic forcing from the Atlantic-Vortex can easily encroach on wrn and crtl Europe. Within a subtropical airmass at lower levels, an active day concerning convection is expected primarily over Germany and Be-Ne-Lux.

Mesoscale Discussion

…N-France, Be-Ne-Lux and NW Germany…

The most prominent feature will be a secondary trough/PV anomaly, that pivots from GB to the North Sea on Wednesday. As it interacts with a lower positive theta-anomaly over S England, the PV Thinking teaches, that baroclinic development occurs. The resulting sfc cyclone encourages the LL transport of a moist and hot airmass mainly to N France and the Be-Ne-ux countries. Here, sfc temperatures around 35 °C and mixing rations near 15 g/kg are forecast. The highest moisture will be concentrated in the wake of a moisture flux convergence, that ranges from the the centre of LL cyclone over GB to the south-east, as indicated by a tight and linear theta-e maximum. Within a moderate SWly diffluent mid level flow, an EML is advected over the moist boundary layer, yielding potential instability and ML CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. As the WLA caps the instability, CI is suppressed until the early evening. We anticipate the first DMC at the northern part of the convergence somewhere between Antwerpen and the Ruhr. This is by two reasons:

1. The most convenient position of that area relative to the surface low with generally maximized cyclonic stream lines
2. Additional forcing via strong upper lvl divergence at the left exit region of a 300 hPa jet-streak, that stretches from the Pyrenees to W Germany

All in all, there is a substantial overlap of all three ingredients over the highlighted area. Besides this fact, shear conditions are not that favourable with 0-6 km DLS between 15 und 20 m/s, disordered hodographs and only weak pre-storm environmental helicity (0-3 km ~ 100 J/kg).
Hence, we expect mostly multicellular storms, but also a supercell is possible, primarily at the tail end of a developing cluster. Large hail up to 5 cm is the dominant hazard in any well organized storm and will be most likely near the German border. Later on, as storms may cluster into a more ore less organized system, the threat switches to severe wind gusts (delta theta-e around 24 K) and local flash floods. Due to high cloud bases and low LL helicity/shear, the tornado risk is negligible.
During the night, additional storms may form further to the south over E France and Luxembourg and move into SW Germany. One or two severe reports are possible here as well, but overall severe potential will weaken due to lowering instability.

…N-Spain, S-France…

Steep lapse rates but less pronounced LL moisture result in 500-1000 ML CAPE. With orographic lift and 15-20 m/s DLS, one or two well organized, high-based storms may develop along the Pyrenees in the evening. The main risk will be large hail up to 5 cm.

Model consistency, additional remarks

Besides the fact that CI is likely over N France, Be-Ne-Lux and W Germany, there are still uncertainties concerning instability-amount and the spatial-temporal evolution of the convergence. As GFS tends to overestimate the BL moisture, we think that the predicted 2k J/kg are unrealistic. Nevertheless, we introduced a small Severe Threat 2 over the region where we estimate the best overlap of moisture, lapse rates, deeper lift and wind shear and where a supercell with large hail is most likely.

Convective Outlook 23.06.2016

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Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 661.260 93.117.157
50 % 343.873 90.318.295
Severe Threat 1 337.988 84.496.076
Severe Threat 2 111.647 35.799.168

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for N France, parts of Be-Ne-Lux and NW Germany mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts (isolated damaging wind gusts possible), excessive precipitation and a tornado event

 

A Severe Threat 1 surrounds the Severe Threat 2 mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for the western Alpine region mainly for large hail

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for S France mainly for large hail

 

Synoptic Setup

An amplifying upper trough over the E Atlantic will be the prominent feature during the forecast period. On its eastern fringe, southerly winds support the influx of warm subtropical air masses towards West and Mid Europe. In the lower troposphere, homogeneous pressure fields with weak gradients prevail across the forecast region. The anabatic sfc cold front, that corresponds to the trough, is presently situated west to the the European coastline and will slowly be displaced to east. Prefrontal pressure falls may induce one or several convergence lines within the subtropical air mass. Regarding severe weather, a potentially dangerous set-up will be unfolding over Be-Ne-Lux and W Germany.

Mesoscale Discussion

…N France, Be-Ne-Lux, NW Germany…

Current remote sensing and sfc data represent plenty of DMC popping up from Asturias to the Channel. A supercell could also be reported over N France a few hours ago. This convection shifts further to the North and Northeast influencing primarily W France and S England in the night hours. Although most storms will become elevated, one or two well organized cells with severe reports cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow morning the coastal regions may still see remnants from the overnight convection and THR-cloudiness, that initially could suppress insolation. To the east model-guidance only expects a few clouds so that diurnal heating can easily push 2m-temperatures to the thirties.
Within the WAA regime, a spanish-plume, that emanates from the Spanish highlands, is advected to the area of interest. As a result of abundant rainfalls during the last weeks, soils are nearly saturated as indicated by meteoam. With additional moisture advection, mixing ratios may frequently exceed 15 g/kg. With a pronounced EML around 700 hPa (500 hPa lapse rates around 7 K), a loaded gun situation is forecast to evolve from Be-Ne-Lux to NW Germany providing ML CAPE between 1500 and 2000 J/kg with peaks up to 2500 J/kg.
In the wake of a Mid-Level Jet ,1-6 km DLS of 20-25 m/s is superimposed with the highest instability, yielding conductive conditions for well organized convection. With quite linear hodographs SRH reaches 100-200 J/kg and locally higher values near the coastline. In contrast to energetics and kinematics, there are still greater uncertainties concerning the forcing mechanism. As the streamlines at upr levels are very linear/uncurved and the main Jetstreak remains over GB, there is no substantial QG Forcing, that could overcome the WAA-induced capping inversion. Nevertheless, model consensus anticipates CI in the afternoon over Belgium/Netherlands in the vicinity of the prefrontal sfc low. We are still somewhat sceptic, as the today’s CI and severeness over N France was overestimated by WRF and EURO4.
Moreover, overnight convection should be monitored as it may care for a different overall set-up development (outflow boundaries and aforementioned cloudiness). If BL-rooted CI takes place as simulated by the models, convection will rapidly become multi and supercellular bearing a risk of large to very large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts. EURO 4 and WRF 4 km both indicate clustering and an evolution of a cold-pool driven MCS with bowing segments. Such a system would move into NW Germany somewhere between the Lower Rhine and Eastern Frisia in the evening and live on in the night hours (MU CAPE > 1500 J/kg). The development of strong cold pools seems to be realistic due to high Delta-Theta-E > 20 K. In such a system, the main threat switches to severe and damaging wind gusts > 32 m/s and locally significant severe precipitation. Within a small temporal window between LCL lowering and BL stabilization, a tornado event is not unlikely especially along the coastline where LL vorticity may locally be concentrated. We decided to go with a broad and solid severe threat 2, keeping in mind the high severe potential but also the uncertainties of the set-up. We will update the Outlook or publish a Mesoscale Discussion if necessary.

…Wrn Alpine Region, S France…

CAPE between 1000 and 1500 J/kg (higher values near the Alps) and orographic lifting will result in isolated CI in the late afternoon. The main threat will be isolated large hail, especially in S France where a dry Foehn layer is present in mid levels. The latter may on the other hand inhibit convection, but we issued a severe threat 1 to point out the enhanced severe potential due to hail. In general it can be stated, that CI near the Alps/Black forest is more likely than in S France.

Model consistency, additional remarks

—see text—

Convective Outlook 02.06.2016

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CategoricalHeavy RainHailWind GustsTornado


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 472.637 54.721.778
50 % 784.261 154.945.777
Severe Threat 1 520.757 88.049.675
Severe Threat 2 51.705 27.090.072

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for W Germany and E Be-Ne-Lux mainly for significant severe convective precipitation, large hail and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 surrounds the Severe Threat 2 mainly for severe convective precipitation and large hail

 

——— NO FORECAST TEXT AVAILABLE ———

Convective Outlook 29.05.2016

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CategoricalHeavy RainHailWind GustsTornado


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 623.832 72.583.760
50 % 734.594 175.003.064
Severe Threat 1 361.351 93.203.320
Severe Threat 2 63.571 8.153.353

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for Mid Germany mainly for (significant) severe convective precipitation, large hail and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 surrounds the Severe Threat 2 mainly for severe convective precipitation and large hail

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for hail and severe wind gusts

 

——— NO FORECAST TEXT AVAILABLE ———

Convective Outlook 28.05.2016

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CategoricalHeavy RainHailWind GustsTornado


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 239.990 94.795.474
50 % 857.727 172.729.562
Severe Threat 1 660.768 136.427.238

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A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for E France, S Germany and parts of the Alps mainly for large hail, severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts.

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for W France, Be-Ne-Lux and W Germany mainly for severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for large hail and severe wind gusts.

 

Synoptic Setup and Discussion

Stable omega flow continues over the continent. East to a broad Atlantic-trough, a moist and conditionally unstable airmass resides primarily over France, Be-Ne-Lux, Germany, the Alpes and Czech Republic. During the forecast period, the trough will translate to the East as it fills up gradually. A weak low will be induced over the Bay of Biscay by slight QG Forcing (left exit of an upper jet streak) . As it moves to the continent it will benefit form diabatic heating.

Current nowcast features are an leading-stratiform MCS over France and a lot of remnant cloudiness from older convection over S Germany. The MCS tends to weaken and will also leave a broad cloud shield with light rainfall. Further to the north, from N France to W and Mid Germany fog and low stratus has developed overnight, especially in the river valleys. It indicates high BL moisture left by yesterday’s thunderstorms.

In the next hours increasing radiation should rapidly dissipate these low cloud fields as the BL becomes well mixed. Instability is able arise quickly and resulting ML CAPE should reach 700-1500 J/kg over the Severe Threat 1. With weak CIN, early CI is expected. Forcing mechanism are given by local (moisture flux) convergences, outflow boundaries (from the current MCS over France?) and towards the evening the advancing sfc-low over France. Kinematics are most favourable over E France and S Germany, where DLS reaches values near 20 m/s. Here, the best organized storms (possibly supercells) are forecast by WRF 4km. Large hail will be the primary threat within these storms. To the North, storm mode will rather be single- and multicellular due to weaker shear. These storms may produce small to medium size hail and flash floodings.

A spatial division of the DMC is almost impossible, as the models strongly fluctuate. Therefore and due to the early CI (weak CIN) we do not issue a Severe Threat 2 for a certain area. In the evening and night, the sfc low will shift eastwards and influence E France and SW Germany. Overday’s convection may cluster into an MCS, which could be severe. That would be a reason to upgrade to a severe threat 2, but at the moment, the whole situation seems to be to unreliable to become more precise.

 

Convective Outlook 27.05.2016

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CategoricalHeavy RainHailWind GustsTornado


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 261.498 57.403.891
50 % 736.291 155.342.110
Severe Threat 1 663.554 132.112.785
Severe Threat 2 55.329 8.328.807

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for parts Czech Republic, N Austria and extreme SE Germany mainly for large to very large hail, severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for S Germany and the Alpine region mainly for large and isolated very large hail, severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for W Germany and Be-Ne-Lux mainly for large hail, severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for bis parts of France mainly for large and isolated very large hail, severe convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

 

Synoptic Setup

An elongated trough, ranging from Scandinavia rearward to the Azores, remains in place during the forecast period. Filled with polar air, it possesses a more distinct and deep vortex west of Spain as well as an upper level low over S Sweden. On the eastern flank of the trough, high thickness spreads northwards and supports a ridge over the Mediterranean Sea and the Balkans. With another trough east of that feature, a stable and omega-like flow pattern results for the european continent.
In between the Atlantic trough and the aforementioned ridge, Mid Europe will favour a SW flow in which the requirements for deep convection will be satisfied.

Mesoscale Discussion

On the mesoscale, the set-up turns out to be rather complex. A local WAA-max at a wavy air mass boundary that runs from SW France to Poland, currently produces moderate precipitation over Mid Germany. As it migrates to the east it will weaken and finally decay. However a lot of WAA/frontal cloudiness and remnant cloud fields from over night convection will make the nowcast more difficult as they reduce solar insolation and thus instability build up. On the other hand, the WAA-rainfall provides BL moisture enrichment which could be important for late convection.
South to the cloud fields, insolation will be most likely in the noon and afternoon. With mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 K and enhanced BL moisture (lots of rainfall over S Germany/Austria during the last few days) 500 – 1500 J/kg ML CAPE (weak CIN) are forecast. The highest values are found from Mid France over S Germany to the Czech Republic and Austria. The moderate mid level flow yields 0-6 km DLS values from 15-20 m/s (linear hodographs) which overlap with the highest CAPE. Two foci will now be discussed:

…Czech Republic, parts of Austria…

According to the latest model runs by high-res models (WRF, EURO4) this region may face the set-up with the highest severe potential: SRH in excess of 200 J/kg will be conformed to the highest instability and rich BL moisture. Storms should mostly initiate orographically at the
Bohemian-Moravian Highlands, the Bohemian Forest, north to the Alps or near local convergence zones due to mointain-valley circulations. WRF 4 km predicts several strong cells that will affect the region from the afternoon to the evening. As they easily achieve a mesocylone, large to very large hail are the most prominent hazards. But also severe precipitation and severe wind gusts are likely to occur. We decided to issue a Severe Threat 2.

…France, Be-Ne-Lux, Alpine region and parts of S Germany…

In this area the spatial-temporal distribution of DMC is most questionable. Despite the fact that the overall set-up is quite convenient for organized convection there are a few limiting factors, e.g. the “debris” cloudiness, but also the small amount of CIN that could care for early CI so that CAPE-amplitude will not get as high as simulated. Additionally, latest WRF and EURO4 did not show strong convective cells over S and Mid Germany as they did a few runs ago.
We think that CI takes place in the late noon over France, where several diffuse convergence zones are forecast to evolve in the wake of pressure falls in alignment with the airmass boundary. That convection may also become supercellular because of the favourable shear conditions. Due to the linear hodographs with a deep shear layer storm splits can be expected.
Both EURO 4 and WRF indicate and MCS that could organize from that cells and move/propagate to E France and SW Germany during the evening and night. Independently, cells may also form over S and W Germany along secondary mountains, local convergences or outflow boundaries of older storms. Well organized storms are most likely south of a line Saarbrücken, Nürnberg.
To the NW, over W Germany and Be-Ne-Lux, storms appear to be less organized due to weaker DLS (15m/s), but a few multicells with large hail and heavy precipitation are possible as well.

In summary a high severe threat 1 seems to be sufficient for the whole area. It is important to pronounce that the hazard are all the same as in the severe threat 2 (primarily hail, locally large hail) but coverage of severe weather is not as high as further east.

Model consistency, additional remarks

The uncertainties are mentioned above. The convective outlook will be updated if necessary.

Convective Outlook 26.05.2016

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Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 355.385 87.116.762
50 % 410.434 68.260.708
Severe Threat 1 294.565 56.844.941
Severe Threat 2 45.615 4.000.647

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A Severe Threat 1 has been issued parts of France mainly for severe convective precipitation and to a lesser extend for large hail and severe wind gusts.

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for extreme E France, parts of SW Germany and N Switzerland mainly for severe convective precipitation, and to a lesser extend for large hail.

 

——— NO FORECAST TEXT AVAILABLE ———

Convective Outlook 21.05.2016

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CategoricalHeavy RainHailWind GustsTornado


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 287.352 57.059.555
50 % 209.815 52.716.108
Severe Threat 1 163.243 30.793.347
Severe Threat 2 122.566 35.970.393

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A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for W and N France as well as for S Belgium mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A Severe Threat 1 surrounds the Severe Threat 2 mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts and to a lesser degree for tornadoes.

 

Synoptic Setup

An amplifying upper trough slowly shifts eastwards from the ern Atlantic to W Europe during the forecast period. To the east it favours deep differential PTA and positive geopotential tendencies, which result in downstream ridging from the
Mediterranean to Mid Euope. Thus, the whole pattern gets less progressive. At lower levels the ana cold front that associated with the trough also translates to the East. In the prefrontal airmass organized DMC becomes likely in the afternoon and evening hours.

Mesoscale Discussion

A dangerous setup will evolve over parts of France and Belgium as a Spanish Plume spreads northwards within the WAA regime. Nearly indifferent Mid Level lapse rates (~7 – 8 K) and a fairly moist layer near the surface will promote the build up of substantial ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg with the highest values over Mid France. Since the airmass is strongly capped, no CI is expected until the late afternoon / evening. A sfc pressure trough is forecast to form over the Biscay Sea in the late noon. As it moves to the north east,
benefits from pressure falls due to diabatic heating over the continent. That pressure anomaly and the related convergent wind field will be the prominent feature reducing the capping inversion as QG forcing remains relative weak until the night hours. Then, it gets more elongated, resulting in the formation of a convergence line.
As noted above, CI is expected in the late afternoon/early evening over the W and NW France. 0-6 km bulk shear between 20 and 25 m/s, 0-1 km LLS around 10 m/s and a notably helical flow (0-3 km SRH 100-200 J/kg) that coincide with the highest CAPE, guaranty a kinematic environment favourable for well organized DMC. This includes long tracked supercells capable of producing large hail up to 5 cm and severe wind gusts. Since most of the SRH is confined to the lowest kilometre, there is a distinct tornado risk with any boundary-layer-rooted storm. This counts to the greatest extend for the region north to the sfc pressure trough where veering is strongest.
Later on, clustering can be expected as a result of prevalent cold pool formation. Then, a MCS may form and travel to Belgium along the coastline where a further more local vort-max is forecast. This feature is shown by several models. A second system (aligned to the elongated convergence of the sfc trough) may form near Bordeaux and influences Mid France in the night hours, as indicated by EURO 4. Whereas the hail risk reduces a down burst risk persists in the MCS(s). Also a bow echo development cannot be ruled out. Furthermore flash floodings are likely due to PW values around 30 kg/m^2. It is somewhat unclear how far the systems move to the east. We therefore spread the a severe threat 1 a little more to the East as indicated by most models. It is possible, that E Belgium and extreme W Germany are also influenced in the early morning hours.

Model consistency, additional remarks

Although the general setup is simulated consistently, there are some discrepancies concerning LL moisture and instability build up. ECMWF for example shows a drier BL than GFS. Comparison with current mixing ration values shows that, GFS captures the situation better than ECMWF at this moment.
The position of the convergence zones / vort-maxes is computed similarly, uncertainties concerning the eastern propagation are mentioned in the main text.
In a nutshell, is can be stated that the highlighted areas will face a potentially dangerous situation that is warned with a solid severe threat 2.

Convective Outlook 01.04.2016

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Table Cell Table Cell Table Cell Table Cell
Table Cell Table Cell Table Cell Table Cell

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Validity Date:

valid from: 13.08.2015, 12:30 UTC to 14.08.2015, 06 UTC
issued: 13.08.2015, 12:30 UTC
Forecaster: Armin K., Sebastian B.

 

A Severe Threat 2 has been issued for S France mainly for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts und to a lesser extend for tornadoes.

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for N France, Be-Ne-Lux and W Germany mainly for excessive precipitation including flash floodings, small to medium size hail and to a lesser extend for strong wind gusts and tornadoes.

 

Synoptic Setup

Ahead of a long-wave trough sfc cyclogenisis takes place over northern France in response to day time heating and slight QG forcing. With the maximum theta e values, a tight convergence travels from France to Germany whereas the original cold front remains rather ill defined over wrn France with a weak theta e-gradient.

Mesoscale Discussion

…Southern France…

An active MCS has formed along a upr short wave over S France. With ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg and enhanced 0-6 km DLS of 20 m/s well organized tail-end storms currently affect the region north of Avignon . These storms may include supercells capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Later on, after airmass recovery with a well defined EML, a second wave of severe tsms will influence soutehrn France with a total severe potential around 12 %. Thus we intruduced a Severe Threat 2 for that area.

…Northern France, Be-Ne-Lux, Western Germany…

To the North of the forecast area there are similar CAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg) but a less kinematic environment with DLS of 10-15 m/s. DMC that initiates at the aforementioned convergence will thus be of pulse storm-nature, but also a few multicells are possible. According to High res model data an organization into a broken line is likely. Due to backward and sideward storm builds, training effects with heavy rainfall and flash floodings are forecast. Also a few hail events (1-3 cm in diameter) will occur. As ll flow strengthens in the evening and SRH strengthens in the evening a tornado event cannot be ruled out especially if storms remain sfc based for a longer time.
Later on the storms will get a more westerly propagation component and effect wrn German during the night hours. With no insolation the severe potential will gradually weaken.


 

 

Model consistency, additional remarks

Except for the exact position of the convergence and the location of CI, the situation is simulated consistently.

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