Convective Outlooks 2018

Convective Outlook 29.04.2018

deutsche Outlook-Kurzfassung (aufklappen)
CategoricalHailWind GustsTornadoHeavy Rain



Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 1.960.377 281.427.976 Amsterdam, Antwerpen, Basel, Belgrade, Berlin, Bordeaux, Bremen, Brussels, Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Florence, Frankfurt, Geneva, Genoa, Hamburg, Hannover, Katowice, Kraków, Leipzig, Lódz, Lvov, Lyon, Mannheim, Marseille, Milan, Munich, Nice, Nürnberg, Poznan, Prague, Rome, Sarajevo, Sofia, Stuttgart, Toulouse, Turin, Vienna, Vilnius, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal, Zagreb, Zurich
50 % 671.549 117.007.984 Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Genoa, Katowice, Kraków, Lódz, Milan, Poznan, Sarajevo, Turin, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal
Severe Threat 1 409.248 94.430.802 Basel, Bremen, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Genoa, Leipzig, Lyon, Mannheim, Milan, Turin, Wuppertal


Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 1.592.295 240.313.453 Basel, Belgrade, Bremen, Brussels, Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Florence, Frankfurt, Geneva, Genoa, Hannover, Katowice, Kraków, Leipzig, Lódz, Lyon, Mannheim, Milan, Munich, Nice, Nürnberg, Poznan, Prague, Sarajevo, Stuttgart, Turin, Vienna, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal, Zagreb, Zurich
5 % 786.324 136.091.995 Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Genoa, Katowice, Kraków, Leipzig, Lódz, Mannheim, Milan, Poznan, Sarajevo, Turin, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal
10 % 68.248 23.142.580 Milan

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 1.144.826 5.182.771.981 Antwerpen, Basel, Bremen, Brussels, Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Geneva, Genoa, Hannover, Katowice, Kraków, Leipzig, Lódz, Lyon, Mannheim, Marseille, Milan, Nice, Poznan, Sarajevo, Stuttgart, Turin, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal, Zurich
5 % 298.845 66.083.462 Basel, Bremen, Cologne, Dortmund, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Lyon, Mannheim, Wuppertal
10 % 96.568 33.496.316 Cologne, Dortmund, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Wuppertal
Significant 53.986 16.013.842 Cologne, Dortmund, Düsseldorf, Wuppertal

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 87.911 34.242.971 Cologne, Dortmund, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Wuppertal

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
5 % 1.616.467 242.009.319 Amsterdam, Antwerpen, Basel, Belgrade, Bremen, Brussels, Budapest, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Florence, Frankfurt, Geneva, Genoa, Hannover, Katowice, Kraków, Leipzig, Lódz, Lyon, Mannheim, Milan, Munich, Nürnberg, Poznan, Prague, Rome, Sarajevo, Stuttgart, Toulouse, Turin, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Wuppertal, Zagreb, Zurich
10 % 409.248 94.430.802 Basel, Bremen, Cologne, Dortmund, Dresden, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Genoa, Leipzig, Lyon, Mannheim, Milan, Turin, Wuppertal
15 % 93.751 33.907.950 Cologne, Dortmund, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Wuppertal
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Forecast FAQ

Update 1 for Convective Outlook for 2018-04-29

 

A severe Threat 1 has been issued for eastern France, SW Germany and parts of Be-Ne-Lux mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail, excessive precipitation and a tornado event

 

A severe Threat 1 has been issued for parts of eastern Germany mainly for excessive precipitation and an isolated large hail event

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for North Italy, mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and to a lesser degree for severe wind gusts

Synoptic Setup

A lead upper level trough extends from the Norwegian Sea to western Iberia yielding a south-westerly flow pattern across central Europe. At lower levels, lee cylogenesis north to the Pyrenees creates a week surface low across southern France during the next hours. Coupling with the upper trough results in a baroclinic development. As the emerging low pressure system travels northeastward in a gradually destabilizing atmosphere, well organized convection is likely during Sunday afternoon and night.

Mesoscale Discussion


…E France, Be-Ne-Lux, Germany…

Prefrontal CI is currently in progress south to Reims (Fr). This convection should organize into the expected linear MCS (see original Convective Outlook). Some further, more isolated cells may trigger in front of the approaching system somewhere along the french/belgian borderline.

Concerning the pre-storm environment, 12 UTC soundings confirm a relatively moist BL from E France to SW Germany (specific moistures > 10 g/kg), but mid-level lapse rates seem to be less steep than expected. In addition a lot of debris cloudiness can be observed within the warm sector by the help of satellite data. Although CAPE is still expected to increase up to locally 1000 J/kg, we downgraded to a high end Severe Threat 1. This is for the following reason:

As the lapse rates (and thus CAPE) are less steep than predicted, very strong cold pool organization gets unlikely. This reduces the chance for significant severe wind gusts. In addition, the lower instability does not justify a 15 % hail line anymore (which is necessary for a Severe Threat 2).

There are no significant changes upon the other thunderstorm/threat areas.

…N Italy…

Diurnal heating will lead to CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg within a moderate shear environment with veering hodographs (SRH exceeds up to 150 J/kg). In the late afternoon single and multicell convection will trigger along the Alps and somewhere on the Padan plain. The latter is somewhat uncertain but especially UKMO EURO 4 suggest a single supercell storm north of Parma. Overall severe potential satisfies a brief Severe Threat 1

…Parts of eastern Europe/Balkans…

Scattered disorganized storms will initiate within the diurnal cycle. Locally heavy precipitation will be the primary threat, followed by medium size hail. Activity will rapidly diminish after sunset.

 

 

Model consistency, additional remarks

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Convective Outlook 13.04.2018

deutsche Outlook-Kurzfassung (aufklappen)
CategoricalHailWind GustsTornadoHeavy Rain

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 1.154.107 144.660.007 Bremen, Dortmund, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hannover, Mannheim, Nuremberg, Stuttgart, Basel, Bilbao, Budapest, Geneva, Gdansk, Lyon, Milan, Paris, Turin, Vienna, Zaragoza, Zurich
50 % 688.978 85.000.518 Berlin, Dresden, Prague, Leipzig, Munich, Bordeaux, Katowice, Kraków, Lódz, Lvov, Poznan, Toulouse, Warsaw, Wroclaw
Severe Threat 1 294.553 36.750.462 Berlin, Dresden, Hamburg, Leipzig, Lódz, Poznan, Warsaw, Wroclaw

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 514.876 462.376.888 Munich, Bordeaux, Katowice, Kraków, Lvov, Prague, Toulouse, Warsaw
5 % 174.102 22.623.630 Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig, Lódz, Poznan, Wroclaw

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 485.446 58.217.019 Bremen, Hamburg, Munich, Bordeaux, Katowice, Kraków, Lvov, Prague, Toulouse
5 % 278.495 32.927.291 Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig, Lódz, Poznan, Warsaw, Wroclaw

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 30.226 4.685.072 Hamburg

Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
5 % 1.208.976 144.199.779 Prague, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Lyon, Hannover, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Bremen, Nuremberg, Dresden, Munich, Berlin, Turin, Wroclaw, Poznan, Katowice, Lódz, Kraków, Warsaw, Basel, Zurich, Geneva, Lvov
10 % 31.020 4.590.042 Hamburg
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Forecast FAQ

 

A Severe Threat 1 has been issued for parts of Central Europe (including Germany and Poland) mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and excessive precipitation.

Synoptic Setup

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Mesoscale Discussion

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Model consistency, additional remarks

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Convective Outlook 04.04.2018

deutsche Outlook-Kurzfassung (aufklappen)
CategoricalHailWind GustsTornadoHeavy Rain







Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
20 % 1.350.661 232.073.557 Antwerpen, Brussels, Prague, København, Lille, Bordeaux, Paris, Dortmund, Duisburg, Wuppertal, Essen, Düsseldorf, Mannheim, Hannover, Stuttgart, Bremen, Nürnberg, Cologne, Dresden, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Turin, Genoa, Milan, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Poznan, Basel, Zürich, Sheffield, Nottingham, Newcastle, Liverpool, Cardiff, Leeds, Manchester, Birmingham, London
50 % 358.616 36.073.077 Nice, Toulouse, Marseille, Lyon, Leipzig, Berlin, Geneva
Severe Threat 1 322.251 34.361.147 Nice, Marseille, Lyon, Leipzig, Nürnberg, Dresden, Berlin, Geneva











Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 374.596 44.399.101 Nice, Toulouse, Marseille, Lyon, Hannover, Bremen, Nürnberg, Dresden, Hamburg, Munich, Geneva
5 % 129.066 14.838.415 Leipzig, Berlin











Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 662.360 131.566.707 Antwerpen, Brussels, Prague, Toulouse, Paris, Dortmund, Duisburg, Wuppertal, Essen, Düsseldorf, Mannheim, Hannover, Stuttgart, Bremen, Cologne, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Turin, Basel, Zürich
5 % 322.251 34.361.147 Nice, Marseille, Lyon, Leipzig, Nürnberg, Dresden, Berlin, Geneva









Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
2 % 151.471 18.639.436 Leipzig, Berlin











Risk Area (sq. km) Population Larger Cities in Risk Area
5 % 1.288.048 238.873.794 Antwerpen, Brussels, Prague, Nice, Toulouse, Lille, Bordeaux, Marseille, Lyon, Paris, Dortmund, Duisburg, Wuppertal, Essen, Düsseldorf, Mannheim, Hannover, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Bremen, Nürnberg, Cologne, Dresden, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Berlin, Turin, Genoa, Milan, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Basel, Zürich, Geneva, Sheffield, Nottingham, Cardiff, Manchester, Birmingham, London
10 % 63.073 3.775.450
bei Fragen zu den Convective Outlooks hilft unsere
Forecast FAQ

 

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Synoptic Setup

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Mesoscale Discussion

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Model consistency, additional remarks

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